Bankroll management

Set the bankroll first

A bankroll is money set aside for betting that has no other job. Not rent, not savings, not money you would miss. If losing all of it would change your month, it is too big.

The number should be decided once, in advance, and topped up on a schedule rather than in response to a losing run.

Unit sizing and flat staking

A unit is a standard bet size, conventionally 1 to 2 percent of your bankroll. On a $1,000 bankroll, that is $10 to $20 per bet.

Flat staking means betting the same unit size every time, regardless of confidence. It is boring and it is correct. Confidence is poorly calibrated in almost everyone, and variable staking amplifies the effect of that miscalibration in both directions.

Talking in units rather than dollars also makes results comparable over time and stops you fooling yourself about a good month that was really one lucky big bet.

Why chasing does not work

Chasing means increasing stakes to recover losses. The maths is unambiguous: each bet is independent, the house margin is unchanged, and increasing stake size increases expected loss in absolute terms.

What chasing does change is variance. Bigger bets mean bigger swings, which means the probability of losing your entire bankroll before any recovery goes up sharply. Doubling stake size roughly doubles your expected loss and far more than doubles your risk of ruin.

How to tell if your process works

Not by profit over a month. A 55 percent bettor loses money over plenty of 50-bet stretches, and a 45 percent bettor wins over plenty of others.

The better test is whether you consistently beat the closing line. If you bet a team at plus 150 and the price closes at plus 130, you got a better number than the market settled on. Do that repeatedly and the profit follows. Do the opposite and no amount of short-term winning is telling you the truth.

Track every bet: date, market, price taken, closing price, stake in units, result. If that sounds tedious, that is the point. The tedium is the filter.